Dry spring weather without thermal outliers

We’ve had to wait a long time for spring, but it looks like it’s really kicking off now. Temperatures often fluctuate between 15 and 20 degrees, with the sea being cooler than inland. The precipitation signals have been reduced to a few local showers. How long will this dry spring weather last?

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General weather in Europe

The weather in Europe is clearly different from the past few months. Since high pressure areas have often been found around the Mediterranean in recent months, resulting in extremely dry conditions, that pattern has completely reversed with high pressure areas north of our regions and low pressure areas south of us. This results in dry weather for us, but the areas around the Mediterranean have to take into account a lot of precipitation, locally even a lot of precipitation.

Low pressure areas above the MZ push moist and warm air against the Apennines and the Alps

As a result, some regions in Italy have already been flooded. In the coming days, the precipitation will move to the southwestern part of the Alps, where a lot of precipitation can fall due to the pressure of very humid air. The areas around Turin, and certainly in the mountains, must expect more than 100 mm of precipitation, locally even up to 300 mm, in a relatively short time, with snow in the higher areas. Trop is trop! Unfortunately, floods and landslides are a real option. The dry spring weather in Italy is so abruptly stopped.

Very high rainfall in the northwest of Italy

Weather forecast for the next few days in the Benelux

Our weather maps look a lot drier. On Saturday, the momentum of the past few days will be continued. The day starts sunny with some innocent cumulus clouds during the day. It stays dry everywhere. Thanks to the sun, the mercury can rise again with maxima between 18 and 20 degrees. There is a noticeable wind from the northeast, later on the Belgian coast from the north, causing cooler air to slide in from the sea.

Sunday morning starts with significantly more clouds, but gradually the sun comes out and cloud fields and clear spells alternate. During the course of the day, the cumulus clouds, especially in the east of the Benelux, continue to grow with a chance of a single shower or thunderstorm.

The maxima climb slightly higher than in recent days with temperatures up to 24 degrees in the east of the Benelux. At sea it remains significantly cooler due to an onshore wind. This creates a strong gradient in temperature across the Benelux.

Maxima according to the German weather model on Sunday 21 May

Monday will start gray especially in Belgium, with even local fog in the Ardennes. In the Netherlands, clear skies are already present in the morning, which are gradually expanding to the south. In the afternoon we get a mix of cloud fields and clear spells.

A few thunderstorms will occur, especially in Germany, and it is possible that a thunderstorm will hit the east of the Benelux. Temperatures are again slightly lower and fluctuate between 14 degrees by the sea and 22 in the east. There is a moderate wind from the north.

Maximums on Monday according to German weather model

Also on Tuesday and Wednesday we continue to be plagued with a wind from the north. On Tuesday that is still a moderate wind, but on Wednesday it decreases somewhat in strength. As a result, the maxima can climb a bit higher inland on Wednesday. It stays cool by the sea. The maxima are between 11 and 18 degrees on Tuesday, and between 13 and 20 degrees on Wednesday. The only constant is that it stays dry, except for some light rain or a shower. Dry spring weather!

Long term?

Following next week’s dip in temperatures, the mercury appears to be recovering to normal levels, if not slightly above. However, the temperature strongly depends on the location in the Benelux. In general, the further from the sea, the warmer it can get as the wind often comes from across the sea and it is still relatively fresh for the time of year.

This evolution is nicely depicted in the weather plume of the European weather model. From next week, the temperature will take a step back and it will remain mainly dry. The rest of next week also seems to be dry with temperatures between 15 and 20 degrees.

Weather plume of the European weather model

It is also quite striking how few members of the ensemble opt for a southwestern movement. Most of the members opt for a northern to eastern current. That is why the temperatures always remain quite moderate. Well, the weather picture that is developing in Europe fits perfectly into the picture of the seasonal models.

They predict low pressure areas around the Mediterranean with a lot of rain there. In the north of Europe, a high pressure area ensures dry weather maps. In between, an eastern current often develops with dry weather maps and gradually warming temperatures because the country is also warming up further. So the dry spring weather seems to last until the end of May!

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